Eruptive scenarios

The simulation of possible eruptive scenarios is very useful to quantify the susceptibility of certain regions from Macaronesia in an alert situation. One of the volcanic dangers to be taken into account is the fall of volcanic ash ejected in a possible eruption. Volcanic ash can cause a major setback to air navigation, causing a considerable economic impact in highly tourist regions.

To model the dispersion of the volcanic ash cloud, a specific software called FALL3D is used. Developed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology of Naples (Italy) and the Supercomputing Center of Barcelona (Spain), FALL3D is a time-dependent Eulerian model that simulates the transport of ash in the air and its subsequent deposition on the ground. Using a considerable number of Monte-Carlo simulations, varying the position of the eruptive vent, the meteorological conditions and the characteristic parameters of the eruption, a robust statistical evaluation of the possible impact that a possible eruptive scenario can provoke on air traffic can be obtained.

The previous simulation corresponds to a possible eruption at Teide, in Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). It has been made with meteorological data in dates between 01/05/ 2017 – 15/05/2017 and represents the ash concentration, measured in g/m3, at a flight level 100 (Fligh Level 100) that approximately corresponds to around 3 km high above sea level. The height of the column reaches 5.5 km, reaching an exit speed of 250 m/s.